What will 2011 hold for information security professionals? Last year I predicted a year of change. It did not happen. But we are incubating a major crisis: legacy systems are vulnerable; existing security technologies are breaking down; a dangerous monoculture is building; and an information tsunami is heading our way.
Today's security solutions will not meet tomorrow's demands. The longer we put off change, the greater the potential damage from a major incident. The security community is slow to react to a changing problem space, however, preferring gradual evolution to radical revolution. So don't hold your breath. Nevertheless, I expect to see three major shifts in thinking during 2011.
The first is that we are likely to experience a major security incident involving the integrity of our critical national infrastructure. Not quite Die Hard 4 perhaps, but sufficient to incentivise utility companies to tackle their long-standing security vulnerabilities. Building security into the systems development cycle will need to be taken out of the "too difficult" box. The long haul towards building acceptably secure information systems will begin.